EMEA Consumer Trends Tracker
Summer 2026
As shopper confidence slows,
where do retailers and brands go next?
First published in 2020, the Consumer Trends Tracker has grown to become one of dunnhumby’s flagship research programmes.
Surveying thousands of shoppers across Europe, the Trends Tracker offers an in-depth look at their concerns, priorities, and behaviours, providing retailers and brands with the insights they need to optimise their strategy.
This latest edition focuses on the the first half of 2026, encapsulating the views of over 5,000 consumers from France, Germany, Denmark, Ireland, Italy, Spain, United Kingdom, Norway, Sweden, and the Netherlands.
1. Consumer confidence: recovery stalls as concerns mount
The conflict in Iran – along with a subsequent increase in the cost of energy – has seen consumer confidence drop to its lowest point in three years.
At the time of our last Consumer Trends Tracker, in January 2026, consumer sentiment was more positive. Analysis of the OECD’s (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) Consumer Confidence Index showed that sentiment had improved considerably since the lows of the cost-of-living crisis (2022/23), but still remained far below its pre-pandemic high (2017/18).
Still worried, but concerns lessen: consumer confidence appeared to be stabilising at the time of our last Trends Tracker, although the cost-of-living cloud continued to loom.
Source: OECD database, Measure: Composite consumer confidence
Six months later, and the picture looks significantly different. Since the Strait of Hormuz was blocked on 28th February this year, a domino effect has begun to spread across global energy and agrifood systems. As has been reported, increases in the price of oil, for instance, are having an onward impact on the cost of fuel, plastics, and synthetics; a reduction in the supply of fertilisers threatens to have significant implications for food production.
Oil
- 20% of the world’s seaborne crude oil at risk
- Price surge: From $72 to over $120 (Brent Crude)
- Downstream impact on fuel costs, plastics, and synthetics
Gas (LNG)
- 20% of global LNG -critical for Asian and European markets
- 2x the volume of the 2021 Nord Stream capacity
- Impact on energy, cooking gas, power generation, and chemical inputs
Fertilisers
- 30% of globally traded fertilizer transit via Hormuz
- Urea’s 70% of global supplies are threatened and prices up 40-50%
Logistics
- Major shipping lines have implemented "conflict surcharges" to offset the increased risks and operational costs of navigating the Middle East
Grocery
- Gulf markets: 80% food calorie import dependency
- Pistachios: 18% of global supply (Iran) fully halted.
- Grocery prices impacted (e.g. UK expected +9% grocery inflation end-2026 - 3x pre-war rates)
Sources: IEA, World Bank, BoA, FAO, OECD, FDF, Global Agriculture
Some of these issues are longer term concerns. Others, however, have been felt almost immediately. Prior to February, for instance, Eurozone energy costs had largely been in decline with annual inflation sitting somewhere between -2% and -4%. Following the start of the conflict, however, costs have once again spiked, inflation back up to almost 11% by April.
Naturally, these prices are indelibly linked to the conflict in Iran. Concerns centring on the effect of two major conflicts running in parallel and the resulting impact have risen sharply over the past six months.
After a winter of decline, energy prices are rising again, with inflation in the Eurozone reached almost 11% by April.
Source: Eurostat https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/products-euro-indicators/w/2-02062026-ap OECD database, Measure: Composite consumer confidence
Away from this major topic, other concerns remain around climate change, stores not offering the best value, or reduced stock availability, but we are now starting to see clear differences in concerns when we segment the data by demographic.
A deeper look at our data reveals that older respondents expressed more concern about the impact on the cost of their grocery shop, whereas younger respondents are more focused on the effects of climate change. This “value vs. sustainability” dynamic isn’t just an interesting sidebar, either – used effectively, it’s a genuine opportunity for retailers and brands to communicate with shoppers on the issues that matter most to them.
Conflict in the Middle East has gone from a low-tier concern to a stark reality for consumers - only global trade restrictions offer greater cause for concern.
Source: dunnhumby Consumer Trends Tracker - Summer 2026
A similar situation exists in regard to income, too. Since the start of the year, we’ve seen the emergence of a “k-shaped” trend when it comes to income disparity. Put simply, those on higher incomes say their personal finances have improved over the past year, while those at the lower end of earnings scale have seen theirs get worse. Again, this is information that retailers and brands should be using to focus on meeting their customer needs - in order to uplift customer satisfaction and reduce concerns by producing tailored personalisation initiatives.
With concerns rising, then, it’s only logical that consumer confidence has dropped notably since our last Trends Tracker. The OECD Consumer Confidence Index now sits at its lowest point since 2022/23 – lower even than at the peak of the pandemic. Consumers are still more optimistic than they were a few years back, but the events of the last six months have taken an undoubted toll on sentiment as a whole.
Consumer confidence now sits at its lowest point since 2022/23, with the events of the past six months appearing to have had a corrosive effect on sentiment.
Source: OECD database, Measure: Composite consumer confidence
2. Selective savings: as prices rise, shoppers are making considered trade-offs
With confidence falling, consumers are looking to cut back further wherever possible. This isn’t a case of “savings above all”, though – customers are making conscious, considered choices about where to reduce spend. This is not a new phenomenon but a re-evaluation by consumers of what more can be done to shield themselves from inflationary pressures.
With consumer confidence having dipped again – how is that playing out at the shelf? To find out, we asked respondents to this latest edition of the Trends Tracker to tell us more about their future purchasing intentions.
Shoppers have a clear plan of action when it comes to savings. Asked where they’d cut back first in the event that they had to rein in their spending, respondents were quick to point to big ticket items as amongst the first to go. Electricals (45%), toys/games (44%), furniture (43%), and holidays/travel (41%) top the rankings here, with shoppers quick to park major purchases should the need arise.
Grocery remains well protected against the threat of reduced spend. Respondents are significantly more likely to cut back on big ticket items instead.
Source: dunnhumby Consumer Trends Tracker - Summer 2026
Grocery, on the other hand, remains comparatively well insulated. In total, only 11% of respondents said they’d cut back on their supermarket shop, the lowest response by some way.
In some respects, that kind of result should be expected: from the list of options presented to respondents, grocery is the only category that qualifies as a true essential. At the same time, it also hints at the “lipstick effect” in action; faced with a need to curb their spending elsewhere, consumers may also see grocery as a route to low-cost indulgence that offsets wider cutbacks.
Evidence for that can also be seen in respondents’ current and future spending intentions.
Behaviours like "buying private label" and "using product coupons" remain at the top consistently; shoppers were doing these things in H1 2025, are still doing so today, and plan to continue pursuing these actions into the future as well.
Elsewhere, the biggest change in behaviour came from "premium product choices" which has seen the biggest rise over the last 18 months, showing a growth in importance to customers and a real change in behaviour - potentially from shoppers replacing external behaviours, such as going out to eat and drink, with little luxuries in their shopping basket instead.
Another interesting observation is the drop of "coupon searches online", where "using product coupons" is still ranked highly. This could suggest that the rise in more personalised coupons in a more accessible place, i.e. shopping apps, is helping customers find and utilise coupon more quickly and easily, negating the need to use their time to search more widely for offers. As customer loyalty and personalisation improves from retailers, it will be interesting to see if this is reflected in future data.
“Value-seeking” behaviours like shopping private brands and using coupons remain consistent. Shoppers are increasingly prioritising quality too, however.
Source: dunnhumby Consumer Trends Tracker - Summer 2026
Further evidence for that can be seen when we look at respondents’ current and future spending intentions. Across our most recent Trends Trackers, value-seeking behaviours like “buying private brands” and “using product coupons” have remained extremely consistent; shoppers were doing these things in H1 2025, are still doing so today, and plan to continue pursuing these actions into the future as well.
Our data also shows where customers are looking to save and where they’re looking to splash out. Across a wide variety of categories – ranging from alcoholic beverages through to seafood – we asked respondents to tell us whether they’re more likely to favour quality or price. The resulting index (shown below) allows us to see which categories classify as “Price First”, which are “Quality First”, and which demand “Trade-offs”.
While shoppers group around certain products when it comes to quality or price, income plays an outsized role in driving their choices around dairy, personal care, and more.
Source: dunnhumby Consumer Trends Tracker - Summer 2026
Income plays a critical role here, particularly towards the middle of the index. For commodity products like beverages and packaged food, for instance, both low- and high-income shoppers tend to prioritise price over quality. For fresh produce like meats and seafood, on the other hand, the reverse is true.
In the “Trade-offs” bracket, however, low-income shoppers are far less likely to tend towards quality than their higher income counterparts. Take beauty and personal care: while 34% of high-income respondents favour quality over price here, just 6% of customers on lower incomes say the same. In dairy, that ratio splits at 38% to 7%.
These, then, are the considered trade-offs we mentioned above. Today, shoppers are making smart, contextual choices – spending more where they feel they can, and pulling back where they can’t. Understanding those variables – and just how much disposable income your customers have – is essential if you’re going to meet their needs effectively.
3. AI, q-commerce, and retail media: the shopper response to fast-moving trends
Trends like AI and quick commerce (q-commerce) are changing the face of retail, but habit, age, and familiarity have a major influence on how customers feel about them.
We’ve explored their behaviours at the shelf, but how are shoppers responding to some of the wider trends shaping their retail experiences? To find out, we asked them a series of questions designed to explore fast-moving trends like AI, q-commerce, and retail media.
Let’s start with the first of those: AI. Like anything (relatively) new, the temptation here may be to assume that AI is something that would appeal primarily to younger shoppers. That’s true – but only to a certain extent. As shown in the accompanying graph, a small but growing proportion of younger shoppers (18-34) do use and trust AI-powered tools, but not significantly more than their older counterparts (35-54). Only those aged 55+ are genuinely averse to AI.
This shows a clear need for retailers and brands to demonstrate practical value of AI to customers, in order to help them embed it into their routines, and result in greater adoption.
Our research confirms that price comparison is the most popular use of AI for shoppers (47%), while finding out more about products or ingredients came second (31%). Identifying personalised products was the third most common reason for shoppers to use AI tools like Chat GPT, with 26% of those surveyed using AI for this purpose.
Younger shoppers do lead the way when it comes to trust and adoption of AI, but many middle-aged customers are using it, too. Older shoppers tend to be a little more sceptical of the tech, however.
Source: dunnhumby Consumer Trends Tracker - Summer 2026
As to how shoppers are using it? Use cases differ by age. For younger shoppers, AI-powered tools like chatbots and recommendation engines tend to be a path to convenience: meal planning and the creation of shopping lists are the two key applications. Older customers, on the other hand, are more focused on value, using AI mainly as a price comparison tool.
The likeliest explanation for this split is routine.
Older shoppers are more strategic in how they use AI within their grocery shop. They consider how to best use the tool to their advantage, usually around saving money, and put in place the right routines to do so - such as buying the same products at the same frequency.
Younger shoppers tend to be more spontaneous in their grocery shop - drawn to the ease and convenience the tool can bring to their routine, how it best optimises their time and resources, and reduces their efforts. They're looking for recipe inspiration and shopping list consolidation but want to keep their shopping habits flexible and adjustable.
This understanding is essential for retailers and brands, who could assume that a younger audience are more astute in AI usage. Tailoring their offer to these different audiences could encourage wider and better usage and make a retailer and brand stand out to a customer.
We see different patterns of behaviour around AI usage, based on age. For younger customers, AI is mainly used for inspiration and planning. Older shoppers instead use it as a way to find greater value in their shop, primarily through price comparisons.
Source: dunnhumby Consumer Trends Tracker - Summer 2026
Approaches to q-commerce are similarly diverse – though habit rather than age tends to be the deciding factor in how it is used.
Generally, adoption of the format is strong, with up to a third of consumers having placed a rapid delivery order in the past 30 days. Spain (36%) and the UK (34%) lead the way here. Convenience and emergency purchases are the driving forces behind that uptake; 28% of shoppers plan to order ready-to-eat meals using q-comm in the next month, 26% say the same of baby care products.
Perhaps the most interesting findings here though are not how shoppers are using q-commerce, but why some aren’t. The primary barriers here relate to routine: around three-quarters of respondents say that they already have their shopping schedule worked out (73%) or that they’d prefer to go to a store if they needed something specific (71%). Both objections outrank price, though a number of shoppers (55%) do stress that they find q-comm too expensive.
Emergency purchases and a desire for convenience seem to be driving q-commerce adoption. Where it’s not used, it’s typically the result of long-standing habits.
Source: dunnhumby Consumer Trends Tracker - Summer 2026
Finally, let’s look at retail media – a subject we explored in great detail in a 2026 report that explored shoppers’ evolving relationship with the medium.
One of the main considerations to note here is that new countries appear to be entering the picture when it comes to the effectiveness of retail media. While the UK has led the way previously, retailer-issued promotions and messages are now seen to be at their most influential in Ireland (74%), Spain (71%), and Italy (68%). Danish shoppers are the most sceptical, with less than half (45%) stating that retail media had persuaded them to make a purchase.
Reach and engagement varies considerably from channel to channel. Asked if they could recall seeing advertising while shopping recently, around a third pointed to either signs/posters in-store (36%) or ads/banners on a retailer’s app (31%).
Demographics re-enter the picture here, too; older shoppers (55+) tend to engage more with product displays, shelf promotions, emails, or push notifications, while younger customers (18-34) are more receptive to social media content or digital screens or kiosks within the store.
Our overlayed data shows that the 55+ age range favoured product displays or shelf promotions, and email or push notifications. The 18-34 age range favoured brand social media content and screens or digital kiosks in-store.
This shows that retail media effectiveness varies by geography, channel, and age group; knowing what works where is vital if retailers and brands want to maximise their investments in the medium.
Source: dunnhumby Consumer Trends Tracker - Summer 2026
In conclusion: six months on, here’s what we know now
As consumer needs evolve yet again, retailers need to structure their response around a combination of price, choice, and innovation - especially around shopping essentials, as shoppers are feeling the squeeze.
Confidence is slowing and shoppers are becoming hyper-selective in their uncertainty. They need retailers and brands to really understand their needs and tailor their shopping experience by customer.
At this point in the year, we believe that retailers need to rally around three key pillars:
Reassure and protect your customer base
Shoppers are already feeling the pressure – and that sensation will only intensify if the cost of food begins to rise in the second half of the year. Retailers should be looking to get ahead of that possibility, prioritising the most price sensitive areas and protecting shoppers’ purchasing power
Create opportunities to “decompress”
Customers are increasingly optimising their shop around budgets so support that by actively managing the trading up or down of certain categories to help them make smart choices, and use targeted promotions on Quality First categories to keep them engaged
Pursue meaningful, customer-led innovation
A new era of shopping is here - loyalty must be earned both from the customer and the AI agent acting on their behalf. For retailers, the core fundamentals remain key to not falling behind here; clean, connected and well governed data and building responsible frameworks
