dunnhumby Consumer Pulse 2024: planning ahead for Europe’s post-inflationary era
by Siro Descrovi
At the beginning of this year, I outlined what I believed were the top retail priorities for 2024. In that post, I explained that ‘as the global economy begins to stabilise, retailers will inevitably see less inflation-driven growth’.
Having analysed the results of this latest Consumer Pulse study, I’m now even more convinced about that assertion. Whisper it, but we’re finally on the cusp of a post-inflationary period, one with implications both positive and negative for retailers. The age of “growth by default” may be ending, but exciting new opportunities are on the horizon as a result.
With that in mind, let’s dive in—and find out what the continent’s grocery shoppers can tell us about the direction of travel for European retail.
Financial pressures are easing (slowly)
The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) has been keeping watch on consumer confidence since the 1960s. The organisation’s Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) tracks ‘sentiment about the general economic situation, unemployment and capability of savings[1]’. And, at the time of our last Consumer Pulse study, consumer confidence wasn’t just low—it was at its lowest point on record.
Six months on, and the changes are pronounced. While we’re still a long way from returning to pre-pandemic levels, consumer confidence has improved considerably. And that’s a reality we can see reflected not just in the OECD’s CCI, but in the results of our Pulse data too.
Take shopper sentiment around food prices, for example. In our previous study, almost three quarters (71%) of European shoppers said that the cost of food was “a lot” higher than it had been 12 months before. Today, only half (53%) agree with that sentiment, with some (14%) suggesting that prices are now the same or lower than they were a year ago.

Purchasing power seems to be increasing, too—if gradually. In our last study, just over half (54%) of shoppers told us that “their money doesn’t go as far as it used to” when shopping for groceries. That figure may only have fallen slightly in this latest update (down to 47%), but it does echo the sentiment around overall confidence.
Clearly, we’re not yet at the point at which customers believe that the economics of grocery shopping have settled. At the same time, price is no longer the dominant theme that it was. Customers are more likely to be worried about the prolonged impact of conflict in Ukraine (56%) and the Middle East (54%) on their grocery shop than they are about “not getting the best prices” (49%).
For retailers, this transition to a post-inflationary era will mean one thing: to win, they’ll need to focus on meeting a much broader set of customer needs. Helping shoppers save will no longer be enough. Instead, as well as delivering value, they’ll need to support wider goals around excitement and wellbeing, too.
Priority #1: ‘Help me save’
‘We may be on the right path, but we’re not there yet’. That’s the message from most shoppers in this latest wave of research. Prices are normalising and confidence is growing, but value is still critically important when it comes to grocery shopping.
The focus on private label here represents a wider shift in at-shelf behaviour, too. A quarter (24%) of customers say that they now ‘look less at brands than they used to’, specifying that they’re more interested in value instead. Around a third say that they always opt for ‘whatever gives [them] the best value for money’ (28%) or that—while they have a few brands they love—they’re ‘happy to buy own brand from time to time’ (31%).


Asked which stores deliver on that expectation, respondents cited a wide spread of traditional and discount retailers. Industry stalwarts like E.Leclerc (France), Mercadona (Spain), and Tesco (UK) are among those seen to offer the best value for money, but Aldi and Lidl are mentioned frequently too. In fact, at least one of the two features in the top three for every country across Europe.
Shoppers aren’t just thinking about which stores offer the best value for money, either. Exploring their current (and planned future) behaviours, many suggest that they’ll continue to take specific steps in order to seek out value themselves. Buying private label products, shopping at discounters, using discount coupons, and searching online for the best deals are among the most frequently mentioned tactics.
The focus on private label here represents a wider shift in at-shelf behaviour, too. A quarter (24%) of customers say that they now ‘look less at brands than they used to’, specifying that they’re more interested in value instead. Around a third say that they always opt for ‘whatever gives [them] the best value for money’ (28%) or that—while they have a few brands they love—they’re ‘happy to buy own brand from time to time’ (31%).

Priority #2: ‘Excite me’
Clearly, value remains critically important for the majority of shoppers. As a sense of optimism begins to spread, though, customers are also starting to think beyond the basics.
Given a list of potential treats, for instance, respondents tended heavily towards higher-end activities. While some said that they might have food or drink delivered (14%) or pick up some new in-home entertainment (12%), for instance, travel (34%), dining out (33%), and clothing (26%) were all seen to be significantly more appealing. This is true even when viewed through the lens of a limited budget, too.

Much as these needs might sit outside of the core grocery ecosystem, continued diversification means that this is no longer the missed opportunity that it would once have been. That’s true both for retailers who have proprietary solutions to those elevated needs, and those who have can offer free or discounted third-party services through their loyalty programme.
Retail media is particularly effective as a way to deliver inspiration according to our respondents. Asked whether they’d ever been persuaded to buy a product that they weren’t otherwise planning to, a quarter of customers said that in-store media (23%) and personal offers sent direct by a retailer (also 23%) had prompted them to do so. Notably, those channels track only a little behind TV advertising (30%).In general, retail media is seen to be more effective at inspiring a purchase than most forms of digital and traditional media. France and the UK lead the way here, with respondents stating that personalised offers sent direct from a retailer are more effective than even the mainstream media giant that is TV advertising
Excitement doesn’t have to come in the form of big-ticket offerings like travel and dining, of course. Small nudges—particularly those delivered via retail media channels—can also help to engage customers.

In general, retail media is seen to be more effective at inspiring a purchase than most forms of digital and traditional media. France and the UK lead the way here, with respondents stating that personalised offers sent direct from a retailer are more effective than even the mainstream media giant that is TV advertising.

Priority #3: ‘Share the care’
In our previous Pulse study, we were keen to note that ‘health and sustainability are creeping back up the agenda’. Six months on, it’s clear that this was no short-term trend; customers want to be able to look after both themselves and the planet—and they are increasingly expectant that retailers will help them do it.
From a personal care perspective, the cost of living well continues to be a barrier. Eating well is important for many shoppers; close to half state that doing so makes them feel good (45%), and that they try to choose healthy foods when shopping (40%). For a third, however, the healthy choice is typically outside of their budget (28%).

This situation is mirrored in respect to environmental responsibility. More than half of shoppers say that they’re conscious about the environment (51%), but a third say that sustainable products are too expensive to consider buying (30%).

Importantly, neither of these are new trends; we noted that some shoppers felt they were being “priced out” of leading a low-impact, healthy life all the way back in our October 2022 Pulse study. With that desire continuing to go unrealised, that points to a major opportunity for any retailer that can deliver responsibility at a reasonable price.
Seizing the opportunity
To close out this latest edition of the Consumer Pulse, I’d like to look at some of the actions we believe retailers should be thinking about now in order to outmanoeuvre the competition over the long term.
Across the priority areas covered above, retailers need a detailed, customer-centric plan for each. That means focusing on individual KPIs, answering key questions, and taking purposeful steps towards a stronger proposition.
Interested in building your own strategy around the issues raised above? We can help. Get in touch here.
For further insight into the themes covered by this latest wave of the Consumer Pulse, watch our on-demand webinars here. And, for more great research content, why not check out:
- The Seventh Annual Retailer Preference Index for U.S. Grocery
- Winning with Private Brands, the Customer First Way
- The Power of Personalised Loyalty
About the Consumer Pulse
dunnhumby’s Consumer Pulse is an international research programme designed to monitor changing shopper behaviours. This edition of the Pulse focused specifically on Europe, with results based on responses from 2,000 grocery shoppers across France, Italy, Germany, Spain, and the UK (400 in each market).